Time for 10 things, including the incredible effects of the Brooklyn Nets' star trio, the Boston Celtics' offensive issues and one annoying shot.
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1. Brooklyn's stars empowering their role players
It's possible Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden -- who have played only 186 minutes together -- are so powerful, they are creating entirely new player archetypes. Like .. what position does Bruce Brown play now?
He's nominally a guard, but he doesn't handle the ball or shoot many 3s. He lurks near the basket and sets ball screens, but you can't call him a 'center' when DeAndre Jordan is on the floor. He's functionally a center -- I guess? -- in small-ball lineups featuring Jeff Green and Durant as the tallest Nets.
He might be inventing a new position. Rover? Center fielder on offense? Brown just kind of skulks around searching for dead spots as all five defenders focus on Irving, Harden, and Durant -- and very much not on Brown.
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He's strong around the basket, with a knack for high-speed tilting finishes -- and a soft touch:
Twice against the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday, Brown got behind the entire defense after made baskets simply because no one was looking for him. (#Kangz).
A whopping 56% of Brown's shots have come at the rim. That's good for some seven-footers, preposterous for whatever Brown is now. His stout, multi-positional defense is a valuable part of Brooklyn's super-small lineups. A few more corner 3s would be nice. Brown hit 42% from the corners last season with the Detroit Pistons, but he hadn't been taking many before draining two down the stretch against Sacramento. (I couldn't believe the Pistons traded Brown for almost nothing, and it makes even less sense now.)
The Nets will kick around big name buyout guys, but keep an eye on their current role players. Brown and Green are thriving. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot's confidence sustained through a mini-slump. Landry Shamet has found his stroke. Jordan seems reinvigorated. Nicolas Claxton looks potentially interesting as a switchy big who brings a vertical element on offense.
Superstars make the lives of everyone around them easier (at least on the floor). The NBA has never seen a convergence of supernova ballhandling and all-court shot-making at this level. Brooklyn stands now as the favorite in the East. A few rivals -- including the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday -- have three good to great defenders to match Brooklyn's star trio. Dim the stars enough, and Brooklyn will have to defend at least a bit to grind out wins. That's the theory, anyway.
But Brooklyn's wager is that there is no real slowing down three stars who can create their own shots from anywhere on the floor -- that help will always have to come, and an easier look will be one pass away.
2. Boston's uneven offense
The Celtics are down to 15th in points per possession. For long stretches, they are sluggish -- too dependent on one-on-one play from their All-Stars, with too many support players standing around.
Boston is 28th in assist rate and 21st in passes per game. That is a steep drop-off from two seasons ago, though only a small one from last season.
You can have a great offense without passing much. Still: There is a tipping point for most rosters, and the Celtics have slid by it. Boston ranks seventh in isolations per 100 possessions, but 24th in scoring efficiency -- an ugly 0.9 points per possession -- when those isos lead to shots, per Second Spectrum.
Only five teams generate fewer shots at the basket, per Cleaning the Glass. The Celtics don't compensate with tons of 3s.
Piddling rim volume has dogged Boston almost the entire Brad Stevens era. The Celtics have had lots of players -- including their three best scorers now -- who are comfortable pulling long 2s. But Stevens for better or worse is not one of those coaches who builds from shot selection outward, or pushes his best players to avoid certain shots.
Boston has had good offenses under Stevens. He is fine with lots of 3s. An offense well-versed in taking what defenses concede -- instead of holding fast to mathematical doctrine -- is perhaps better prepared for postseason defenses. But Boston's offense under Stevens has featured lots of east-west movement, and not enough slicing north-south action.
It comes and goes now. The ball pops for a bit, and then the vibes dissipate. With Kemba Walker looking friskier, Boston should hunt more two-man actions pairing Walker with Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. Those produce mismatches, and get the Celtics moving in productive directions:
The most basic issue is that with Gordon Hayward in Charlotte and both Walker and Marcus Smart injured at times, the Celtics have had to rely on too many marginal offensive players. (Smart's playmaking is underrated.)
They've made the best of it. Payton Pritchard jolts them into action. Robert Williams III is a constant alley-oop threat. Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson have hooked up on some nice high-lows. Semi Ojeleye is shooting 39% on 3s. Grant Williams juices the playmaking. Aaron Nesmith brings energy and shooting.
But most of those guys are stand-still types or garbage men. Lineups with only one of Brown, Tatum, and Walker are rough. (Stevens may want at least two of them on the floor at all times.)
Spurts of active, calculated play suggest the Celtics will find a groove once they get healthy. But their ceiling appears lower than they anticipated.
3. Is Kendrick Nunn back?
It was easy to forget after Nunn contracted the coronavirus and fell out of the Miami Heat rotation in the bubble, but he was a worthy Rookie of the Year runner-up last season. The Heat's endless morass of injuries opened minutes, and Nunn has reclaimed his rotation place.
He has been almost a full-time starter the past month, and the Heat have outscored opponents by 3.7 points per 100 possessions with Nunn on the floor during that stretch. He's shooting 37.5% on 3s, enough to keep the paint uncluttered for Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.
So much of success for everyone but superstars -- and even for them sometimes -- comes in making the easy play when it presents itself. Nunn is doing that more:
Nunn dishes the second he spots Wesley Matthews drifting from Butler to clog his driving lane. Butler scores here, but sequences that start with simple reads like this often end with the ball coming all the way back to the trigger man. The game rewards good decisions. Nunn has recorded seven-plus assists in six career games; two have come in the past week.
He's taking fewer long 2s, and picking out the right ones -- setting them up with patient snaking dribbles, and rising with confidence:
He's a serviceable defender at both guard positions. Nunn has earned some burn even when the Heat get healthy.
4. Lonzo Ball, hunting 3s
When Stan Van Gundy analyzed the New Orleans Pelicans on the Lowe Post podcast months before they hired him, he discussed what he saw as Ball's NBA destiny: point guard in transition, spot-up wing in the half-court.
It made sense. Ball is one of the league's best rebounding guards and hit-ahead passers. He just hasn't shown the midrange game or finishing ability to run a half-court offense. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson can do that, leaving Ball to find shots -- mostly 3s -- off the ball.
After bricking in the bubble, Ball is up to 40% on almost eight 3s per game -- career highs. He's even shooting 36% on pull-up triples. Perhaps most important, he's seeking out 3s by sliding into pockets of space when his defender isn't looking:
Ball fills a void when Williamson clears the corner and Ball's defender -- Tatum -- gawks at Ingram. The Pelicans need Ball to be this roving threat. If he stays warm, defenders will pay more attention to his bobs and weaves -- opening breathing room for a half-court offense that needs it.
The Pelicans quietly rank third in points per possession within the half-court over the past month, and they're up to 13th for the season, per Cleaning The Glass. They are fifth in average points after opponent baskets, according to Inpredictable.
These are fantastic signs -- evidence of the power of Point Zion. But even Point Zion needs shot-makers around him, and Ball has emerged as one.(And, yes, he should have launched a semi-contested 3 -- instead of passing the baton -- with the Pels down three in the waning seconds of what became another frustrating close loss for New Orleans. Fire away, Zo!)
Is Ball officially a good 3-point shooter? We're getting close -- a huge credit to Ball and Fred Vinson, the Pels assistant who has done the most work with his shot.
Now, if only New Orleans could play some defense..
5. Wendell Carter Jr. being mean
Over his first two seasons, Carter was one of the league's worst post players. The post-up may be fading in centrality, but interior bigs still need to be able to punish switches -- especially in the playoffs, when you may not find a better shot on any given possession.
In Carter's rookie season, the Bulls scored 0.643 points per possession when Carter shot from the block or passed to a teammate who fired -- 178th out of 184 players with at least 20 post touches, per Second Spectrum. That is almost unfathomably bad.
Carter posted up less last season, but his production barely improved: 0.796 points per possession, 124th among 140 players with at least 20 post touches.
In Year 3, Carter is brutalizing switches:
He'll sometimes seal opposing bigs by outracing them in transition, or burrowing underneath the rim and dislodging them with Zach Randolph-style bumps.
Oof. You can feel that one through your screen.
The Bulls have scored 1.27 points per possession directly out of Carter post-ups -- sixth among 94 players with 20-plus post touches, per Second Spectrum.
Injuries have derailed Carter's overall development. One skill rises, others fall. He's been OK on defense this year, but not as airtight as hoped within Billy Donovan's more conservative scheme. His assists are up a little, but the jumper hasn't really happened -- yet.
That is probably one reason Donovan has been reluctant to play Carter much alongside Thaddeus Young -- Chicago's second-best player this season -- though we've seen it lately with Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter Jr. injured. (Chicago is minus-21 in 77 Young/Carter minutes.)
But these post-ups are encouraging. There is an interesting and maybe a very good modern center in here somewhere if Carter can grow his skills at the same time.
6. Marvin Bagley's feet don't work
On the flippity flip, Bagley seems to have footwork yips in the post. He has turned the ball over on 17% of his post-ups, the seventh-highest rate among those 94 players with 20 or more post touches.
The carnage was worse last season: a 20% turnover rate.
Bagley commits an alarming number of traveling violations:
Refs also ding him for push-offs:
The Kings and Bagley have been in a push and pull about his role since Sacto drafted him No. 2 in 2018 ahead of some dude from Slovenia. The team wanted to start him slowly as a rim-runner who mooches buckets from the dunker spot. It is easier for Bagley to fill that role at center, but the Kings have rarely slotted him there this season with Richaun Holmes shooting approximately 8,243% on floaters.
Bagley has ambitions of ballhandling stardom. He is shooting 38% from deep on increased volume. Few bigs have a prayer against his first step. He poured in 64 points on 24-of-44 shooting over three recent games Holmes missed due -- two of which Bagley started at center. The Kings lost all those games, mostly because they can't stop anybody. Bagley is part of the leakage, though he has been more diligent lately staying down on pump fakes.
Any actualized version of Bagley has to smash mismatches in the post.
7. Jalen Brunson's insta-spin Nash shot
Brunson lives on the line between aggressive and out of control. He forces weird-looking midrange shots.
But Dallas Mavericks fans need to embrace the full Brunson experience, because he has been awesome -- maybe the Mavs' second-best player. He's fun to watch, with a quirky, ground-bound game full of tricks:
Brunson picks up his dribble under the rim, facing the sideline. In one motion, he spins for an insta-jumper. It's fitting he pulls that against Chris Paul -- the master at twisting in mid-air up to square up on this Steve Nash/Wayne Gretzky baseline mini-jumper. Brunson adds his own flourish, quick-shooting it on the way up. Brunson has hit 50% of his midrangers and 74% at the rim -- a figure we'd expect from LeBron James, and absolutely bonkers for a squat fire hydrant like Brunson.
Brunson is a willing screener for Luka Doncic, including in Dallas' pet 'Spain' action. Brunson sprays out in random directions, and can drive-and-kick against scrambled defenses:
He has nailed 52% of corner 3s, an important shot for any perimeter player next to Doncic. The Mavs have outscored opponents by 6.6 points per 100 possessions when Doncic and Brunson share the floor. For all his derring-do, Brunson doesn't turn the ball over much.
He's a straight-up winner.
8. Cleveland's sludgy offense
It's not surprising given how young the roster is and how many players are missing, but the Cavs' offense is a slog.
There is little flow from one action to the next. Sometimes there is no 'next'; possessions screech to a halt after one pick-and-roll, and everyone chills out to watch the Sexland Show (rated NC-17):
Even when the Cavs swing it, the new ball handler often stands and waits for a pick -- if one ever arrives.
The Cavs are 29th in points per possession, 27th in pace, and last in 3-point attempts. Only the Knicks take longer to shoot after dead balls, per Inpredictable.
Big picture, this doesn't matter much. The Cavs are young and injured. It takes time to develop an identity. They have stretches of nice ball movement, and get to the rim a ton. Their young core is developing even beyond Collin Sexton and Darius Garland.
Jarrett Allen is a monster. Dylan Windler is skittering around for 3s. Lamar Stevens has had moments on both ends. Isaac Okoro is Lu Dort East, though he looks like a basketball player and not a middle linebacker who wants to rip your head off.
Okoro has a chance to be special on defense; he's already stonewalling elite point guards and wings. He doesn't get flustered by defenses ignoring him; he jacked 17 3s over two games last weekend, and that's the right long-term approach.
Let's see if the Cavs find more connectivity in the second half of the season.
9. The too-early transition 3 that is almost a pass?
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Maybe I'm Old Man Yelling At Cloud, but these shots annoy me:
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(This is not about Gary Trent Jr., the second-most important player in keeping the Portland Trail Blazers afloat. The Denver Nuggets had a team-wide meltdown of this nature Thursday night on the final possession of their disastrous home loss to the Washington Wizards)
I get the reasoning behind these transition 3s. They are worth an extra point. (Duh.) If you miss, they can almost act as passes to teammates with rebounding positioning. You might get two shots for the price of one
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You might also get zippo. There is still nothing more valuable than a dunk -- except a 3-shot foul, and those are hard to get and quite irritating. Take an extra dribble and hit someone for the sure 2.
10. Two new Bucks bit characters
If you're bored with the Bucks, and even with Antetokounmpo's rim-rattling regular-season dominance, here are two fresh reasons to tune in: Thanasis Antetokounmpo and Marques Johnson, five-time All-Star and Milwaukee's current local TV analyst.
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This might be the most Thanasis sequence ever, though there are several candidates:
The other Antetokounmpo outworks Josh Okogie -- no shrinking violet -- for a loose ball because literally no one in the NBA hungers for loose balls more than Thanasis Antetokounmpo. He then flies in from off-screen, an unseen terror, leaps over and through several bodies -- including two teammates -- for a flying put-back attempt that turns into basket interference.
Thanasis Antetokounmpo plays every second like this -- as if he might never again enter an NBA game. He crashes the offensive glass and drives gaps with alarming violence. Godspeed to anyone who dares take a charge against him. Antetokounmpo is a danger to himself and everything around him, including the integrity of Milwaukee's offense.
Thanasis Antetokounmpo has turned the ball over on almost 29% of possessions he has ended, putting him on pace for one of the three-dozen highest single-season turnover rates ever, per Basketball-Reference. Every dribble hand-off is an adventure. They might end in illegal screens, collisions, or with Antetokounmpo flicking the ball to no one.
The Bucks feed off Antetokounmpo's energy and offensive rebounding. He is back in the rotation, and we have even seen some stray double-Antetokounmpo minutes. They cheer each other on with such outward love, it's honestly moving. Tinyurl.
Johnson has nicknamed Thanasis 'Thanasty,' and that's perfect. Johnson is a flat-out star on the mic. He sees the complexities of the game in real time, and relates them in ways that are easy to digest. He is refreshingly unbiased, unafraid to criticize the Bucks.
As Norman Powell poured in points during one recent Bucks-Toronto Raptors game, Johnson snidely remarked, 'Where is Greivis Vasquez, anyway?' I almost fell out of my chair. Johnson was referencing a trade gone bust -- Milwaukee surrendering the picks that became Powell and OG Anunoby for one season of Vasquez.
You almost never hear local announcers poke the home team this way. The NBA's local TV landscape needs more fun candidness, and less propagandistic cheerleading that can poison fans against referees and opponents.